The Adventure of the Empty House, by Arthur Conan Doyle, is a classic example of a detective story and therefore also an example of crime fiction, following the conventions required by both genres, including those set out or setting, language, plot, and characters of the story.
As is typical for crime fiction, the setting is described in detail and everything is presented so that it appears to be just plausible, if nevertheless slightly out of the ordinary. Also, as is typical for crime fiction, the setting is usually in a large city, London, in this case. Doyle’s account of the time of death of the victim in this story is fitting to the conventions of the setting. On page two, Watson notes, “...his head had been horribly mutilated by an expanding revolver bullet, but no weapon of any sort was to be found in the room.” This account does not only serve to increase the suspense and the curiosity of the reader, but also the fear of such a horrendous crime. By placing crime in the most pedestrian and realistic locations, authors of crime and detective fiction can address and entertain a broad public.
To this extent, the language used in both crime and detective fiction is relatively simple. The difference between the genre of crime fiction and its subgenre of detective fiction hereby lies with the reading demographic. Crime fiction is less complex than detective fiction, which is usually centered around a complicated plot and also intended for a more demanding audience, such as the middle and the upper middle class, which began to emerge during the industrial revolution. This Sherlock Holmes story, although using a more elevated language, is nevertheless written in the past tense and uses short, non-expansive dialogue, as demonstrated by Sherlock Holmes himself on page three, when Watson recounts, “’My dear Watson,’ said the well-remembered voice, ‘I owe you a thousand apologies. I had no idea that you would be so affected.’” The register is relatively formal, but nevertheless familiar within the historical context and the spoken words are confined to two sentences, which makes the word exchange easier to follow, as is common in crime fiction.
What differentiates crime fiction from detective fiction most significantly, however, is the format of the plot. Whereas crime fiction generally follows the format of crime, investigation, and punishment, detective fiction is, for the most part, more complex. Whereas crime fiction is focused on catching the culprit, detective fiction seeks to explain every detail about the crime scenario that was presented at the beginning. As in the case of The Adventure of the Empty House, the story begins with a murder. Usually, a detective is hereafter hired, but in this case, Sherlock Holmes has a special interest to pursue in the uncovering of this mystery. During a previous case, he had almost been killed and is now convinced that the murder of the young aristocrat Ronald Adair and his near-death experience are related. This experience serves as the confrontation with a dangerous situation, required by the conventions of detective fiction and also contributes to the rising action of the story. The climax is reached with the capture of the culprit Moran in the empty house. Thereafter Holmes makes the transition to the denouement, the unknotting of the story, as he begins to put together the facts of the case for the reader and for the other characters.
As is convention, most characters in crime fiction are vaguely drawn, in detective fiction, however, the investigator is always marked by a given set of characteristics. One of them is that he is a very accomplished individual, who is competent to solve problems like no other. Sherlock Holmes demonstrates this readily, by unveiling the culprit in the empty house on page ten, when he tells the rest, “This, gentlemen, is Colonel Sebastian Moran, once of Her Majesty’s Indian Army, and the best heavy-game shot our Eastern Empire as ever produced.” He already demonstrates his intellectual superiority as he begins the denouement of the case as soon as he has captured the villain, revealing the facts of the case bit by bit, as if it were al completely logical, demonstrating his abilities as an extraordinary investigator. As is commonly done in detective fiction, the denouement then flows into the anticlimax, or the return to normality, in this case remarked upon shortly by Watson, when he says on page 13, “… and once again Mr. Sherlock Holmes is free to devote his life to examining those interesting little problems which the complex life of London so plentifully presents.”
In the end, like most pieces of detective fiction, The Adventure of the Empty House promotes the stereotype of the competent investigator and makes crime appear like a useless effort, as the tacit agreement between the author and the reader of detective fiction demands.
Montag, 10. November 2008
Summary of The Permission Problem, by James Surowiecki
The Tragedy of the Commons is a widely accepted concept, accounting for the failure of common ownership. To some extent it helps to explain, for example, why communism failed, stating that, the common ownership of a valuable asset leads to the pursuit of self-interest of the interested parties alone, resulting in the over-exploitation of the valuable asset. In his book, The Gridlock Economy, however, Columbia professor Michael Heller, outlines the antithesis to the Tragedy of the Commons, calling it the Anticommons. Proposing the alternative scenario, Heller argues that if the actual ownership of a valuable asset is divided among a large number of people, more people can veto the use of the valuable asset, resulting in the under-exploitation of the asset. This is the case, for example, in the aircraft industry, the biotechnology sector, or the transport of wind power. Although property rights are designed to encourage innovation and investment, they are thus often likely to "gridlock" a venture. Cooperation among different patent-holders would be necessary to use the asset, but the interested parties often expect unreasonable prices for their valuable shares, making the venture unviable. Strangely enough, it seems that both the Tragedy of the Commons and that of the Anticommons result in similar outcomes, because in both cases the valuable asset turns out not to be of use to any party.
Mittwoch, 5. November 2008
The Role of the Media in Triggering the Financial Crisis
The American banking system may be on the verge of collapse. Surely, people saw this danger coming from a far way away. Why is it then, that nobody was able to prevent it and why is was there no hysteria beforehand? A lot of it can be attributed to the role of the media. Newspapers, for example, have always been in the business of information and have, over the recent decades, become ever more involved in the business of entertainment. What this means, is that in-between the advertisements, a newspaper needs to offer a reader something that is spectacular and sensational. This is an integral part of the tacit agreement that each newspaper has with its readership, but it is also a strategy for survival. Newspapers need not only compete with rival newspapers, but also with the non-print media, and increasingly, with the internet. Newspapers, just like advertisements, need to push people's reptilian hot buttons, a term coined by market researcher Dr. G. Clotaire Rapaille, designating a person's primal instincts and desires. In order to grab the attention of the audience, newspapers need to report issues that are immediate and overwhelming. A year ago, nobody would have paid much attention to headlines such as today's. Internal bank memos may well have been more alarmist. But the broad public would not have been interested. This is firstly, because the problem was set in the future, which meant that it did not matter to people at present, and secondly, it was a problem that addressed no person in particular at the time. News stories are 10% about content and 90% about timing. In order to push the reptilian hot buttons, a headline needs to appear precisely on the right day, for people to take interest. The banking crisis mirrors, to some extent, the issue of global climate destabilization. Today, the public heeds little interest in the matter, because the problem is future-oriented. Newspapers bear alarmist headlines concerning the banking crisis now, because they pertain to an immediate and overwhelming crisis. They write about hurricanes and floods, when they are occurring. After all, the media is not meant for prevention of catastrophes, it is about blowing them up to immense proportions, to attract readers to their front pages. Therefore, it is not surprising, that the banking crisis was not prevented. The mobilization of people needs to be accomplished at the right time and the media is not the medium for such actions, firstly, because of its business mentality, and secondly, because its audience has different demands.
Summary of Doctor's bill, from The Economist
When the current global financial crisis first became apparent during August of last year, the Federal Reserve responded by lowering interest rates to cushion the economy and by assisting commercial and investment banks in financing their holdings of securities. The Federal reserve was also in complete aversion to the use of public money for its operations at that point, because it believed the economy and the financial system to be solid and relatively sound. However, the crisis was gradually intensified by the growing prominence of the "shadow banking system" and its influence on the trends of global financial regulation. The remedy now proposed by Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, and Hank Paulson, the treasury secretary, is one riddled by uncertainty. The Troubled Asset Relief Program(TARP), as it is called, is an emergency measure, primarily intended to avoid any worst-case scenarios and to evade a depression of the dimensions of 1929. The plan foresees for the authorities to spend $700 billion of mortgage-related assets for this purpose, but what seems to be largely disregarded are the wide-ranging differences between the current crisis and the one of 1929. Experience, in the case of today, is a poor guide, seeing as in the past, public money was only committed to financial systems when bank failures and insolvency were widespread. Under pressure to please the taxpayer, lawmakers have opted for a response to spare him, turning instead on Wall Street. TARP may mark a turning point, however. It could break the vicious cycle referred to as the mortgage market and it could restart lending. A lot, though, depends on the vigor of the response. Politicians today, are determined, not to "underdo" it, but TARP, as it stands now, retains a number of flaws. Most prominent is the danger that the problem it seeks to address has since mutated. With high degrees of uncertainty, however, comes the risk of weakening the dollar and of encouraging the reluctance of buyers to take responsibility, once the government decides to retreat its influence. Despite its inherent flaws, however, for now, what matters is the stabilization of trading prices. What comes next, is the need to adjust to a market more heavily regulated by the government than it has been in a long time.
Selection of Article Summaries from The New Yorker
Summary of Unconventional Crude, by Elizabeth Kolbert
Today’s global oil supply can be split into two general categories: Conventional reserves and unconventional reserves. The output of conventional reserves such as crude oil is expected to decline over the next few decades, the result being blackouts, food shortages, and general economic collapse. The yields of unconventional reserves, however, are expected to double by 2010 and could potentially even keep conventional oil flowing longer. Unfortunately, however, the mining and refining processes of such resources are marked by a high demand in energy and a high output of pollution. One of the major unconventional oil sources is tar sand, found mostly in Canada, now already the number one source of American oil imports and possessor of the world’s second-largest oil reserves. It is composed of quartzite, clay, water, and tar, a mixture of bitumen (crude hydrocarbons). The process of excavating the tar, from which only ten percent, the bitumen, is eventually of value, is a long and complicated one and is, up until today, still being developed and perfected. The first step, called Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD), involves two horizontal wells, one above the other, which are inserted into the excavation site. The top one heats its surroundings with high-pressure steam, causing bitumen to flow to the bottom well. In a hot-water tank, the bitumen is then separated from the rest of the tar and from there it is then led to the “upgrader”. This first stage of the procedure alone requires 1600 mega joules of energy, about the value of one quarter of a barrel of oil. In the “upgrader”, the hydrocarbons, often twenty or more atoms in length then undergo the process of catalytic cracking, breaking down the molecules into a state in which they can be transported to the refineries, where they are mostly manufactured into transportation fuel. Overall the complete process requires more energy than that of procuring conventional oil. This is because it involves the transformation of a solid raw material to a liquid fuel, whereas conventional liquid oil is gained from liquid crude oil. Other drawbacks also include more severe landscape destruction, seeing as pipelines, drill pads, and roads are necessary for the extraction of tar from the ground. There is also a greater risk of leaks and spills of dangerous toxins, which would lead to the contamination of the surrounding natural habitats. Air pollution as a result of the burning of unconventional crude is another major issue and it has become evident that its greenhouse gas emissions are greater than those of conventional crude. Overall, even though unconventional reserves are less exploited today than are those of conventional crude, the methods of oil extraction are more demanding, more energy-consuming, and more environmentally damaging and therefore do not render a long-term solution to the coming oil crisis.
Summary of Sovereign Wealth World, By James Surowiecki
The term “sovereign wealth funds” generally refers to investment funds that are controlled by non-Western governments. Due to the rise in oil prices and the increased spending on Asian consumer goods, these funds have steadily gained prominence in the international market ever since the seventies. Today, they possess enough buying power to influence the market prices in Western nations and to gain assets there as well. Politicians representing Western countries are growing increasingly concerned with this pattern. Wide ranges of laws and regulations have been proposed to restrict the flow of capital in this respect and even most free-marketers oppose the takeover of Western companies by “foreign” governments. They fear the potential purchase of enterprises, responsible for a nation’s security or involved in the advanced technologies business and they are disturbed by the idea that the involvement of “foreign” nations might render the stock market less efficient through the protection of their national interests. The fact seems to be disregarded that such governments only seek to be involved in foreign markets because they promise themselves higher investment returns. Global economy is likely to remain largely unaffected by foreign take-overs, firstly because they only pose a threat to other shareholders and secondly, because non-western governments are well aware of the tensions that resulted from their foreign investments and are unlikely to pursue aggressive behaviour. On top of this, global economy is already “impure”, seeing as even in the West, many governments own stakes in major corporations. It is evident, that government involvement in the international market is not as dangerous as many may think. However, if certain nations happen to wish to dim its effects on their national economies, they should examine and possibly alter their own consumer patterns.
Summary of Performance-Pay Perplexes, by James Surowiecki
The mayhem that the subprime-mortgage market recently caused at Wall Street can be traced back to two major obvious blunders in the stock market. Firstly, the taking of foolish and unnecessary risks and secondly, the undertaking of such risks with borrowed money. It is less commonly known that the incentives for these actions lie within the prospect of large investment returns, which are also sources of income for two major categories of businessmen: hedge fund managers and CEOs. Hedge funds are private investment partnerships, opened to a limited number of investors on the basis o f a large initial minimum investment, promising their clients to generate high returns. Hedge fund managers are paid in such a manner that they only earn money if the investors receive returns for their investments. They are simply rewarded a portion of the winnings. In addition, at the end of each year, they receive performance bonuses. If the fund loses money, these performance fees are cancelled until the investors “get back to even”, but the hedge fund managers themselves are not compelled to feed their money into the fund. This allows the managers to “walk away” with their earnings at any time, even if they performed poorly. This often happens out of necessity, for example if all assets are erased, or merely if the fund does not generate enough of a performance fee. Hedge fund managers are thus greatly tempted to take large risks, which seem to promise great rewards without serious drawbacks for themselves. CEOs, the chief executive officers of corporations, are tempted by similar market conditions through the acquisition of stock options of other companies. These give them the right to purchase other company shares at a certain price within a certain time frame and are initially meant to give them incentives for improving the company’s performance. If the value of the stock exceeds that of what the option promises during the given time, the owner of the option can profit greatly. If it is below, the option becomes valueless at the expiration date. Because CEOs sit on entire piles of options, however, the differences in the stock values matter much less to them than to ordinary shareholders. CEOs, therefore, just like hedge fund managers, are inclined to entertain projects that promise greater returns at a greater risk. Unfortunately for the entire economy, however, the taking of such irresponsible risks, by both CEOs and hedge fund managers, with funds that were not theirs and with the financial immunity against the loss of these funds, has caused financial ruin among many investors, stockholders, and other proprietors.
Summary of The Oil Weapon, by James Surowiecki
In 1973, the OPEC oil embargo managed to throw the United States into a dire period of recession as an act of revenge for the American support of the Israelis during the conflict with Egypt. Up until this day, American foreign policy is still driven by the fear of the reoccurrence of such an incident and this has led American policy makers to allege more importance to the power of oil than it deserves. It seems to have gone unnoticed, that even though threats of oil scarcity have been plentiful, so has the amount of oil being produced in the region of the Persian Gulf. Ever since the Iranian Revolution, Arab nations have increased the rate of oil production, the Iraq under Saddam Hussein even to the extent that the United Nations was forced to limit his exports. This makes oil producing nations in the Middle East look more desperate than they try to look. What is evident, however, is that today, Western economies are stronger than they were in 1973 and that OPEC nations control a much smaller portion of the world’s oil market now. The United States is a lot less dependent on OPEC nations today, mostly because it relies on a variety of other suppliers, among them Mexico and Canada, and because, on average, it now uses less oil per dollar of G.D.P.
If an OPEC nation were to enforce another embargo, it would hurt itself more than it would hurt the Americans, because it would sell less without the United States receiving less oil. It is therefore unnecessary to be afraid of the “oil weapon” that many nations in the Middle East wield.
Summary of Global Warning, by Elisabeth Kolbert
Despite the fact that the consequences of global climate destabilization are becoming ever more evident, the government of the United States is unwilling to introduce the necessary countermeasures. The retreat of arctic sea ice causes a significant rise in sea level around the globe, in some cases, threatening to submerge entire populated islands. The thawing of permafrost, the acidification of the oceans, and the acceleration of ice streams, in addition to an increase in frequency and intensity of hurricanes, are also among the most dramatic consequences of global climate destabilization. However, the United States, one of the greatest emitters of greenhouse gases, which are known to be directly linked to global climate destabilization, are unwilling to improve their emissions profile. The Bush Administration does not perceive “global warming” as a pressing problem, and opposes any tax regulations or monetary caps to reduce their emissions, relying on a “voluntary approach” toward environmental friendliness. Given this stance, it is natural that the United States are not a party to the Kyoto Protocol and were thus also excluded from the Montreal Negotiations of 2005. However, the United States was still able to exercise defining influence over the decisions made at the conference. It is unlikely that the current government will support any agreements to follow the Kyoto protocol after its expiration in 2012, making it nearly impossible for the rest of the world to come to a decisive agreement on the issue and making it nearly certain, global climate destabilization will be allowed to worsen over the next decades.
Summary of Fuel for Thought, by James Surowiecki
It is commonly known that the automobile industry vehemently opposes new environmental or safety regulations. It did the same during the debate concerning the raise of fuel-efficiency standards, which occupied the American Congress for the first time in twenty years this July. According to the industry, such measure would be “technologically unfeasible and economically suicidal”. This is because market research conducted by automobile companies clearly proves that powerful but fuel-inefficient cars are most popular among Americans. Today, SUV’s and pickup trucks account for more than fifty percent of the car sales on the American market. The irony in respect to this phenomenon is the approval of the great majority of the American population of “dramatic increases in fuel-economy standards”. This is largely because most buyers prefer cars that guarantee more safety in a crash and which also act as a status symbol. The market creates no incentives to push people in a responsible direction, because it lives off individual purchase decisions, reflected by market research. Consumers on the other hand, indicate by their support of the fuel-efficiency standard bill, that they are not content with the collective purchasing decisions of the nation and require standards for everybody and effectively displaying their disapproval of the phenomenon that is aptly named the “Tragedy of the Commons”, which confronts all buyers with the results of individual consumer patterns in this case.
Summary of Striking Out, by James Surowiecki
During the spring of 1988 the twenty-two-week large-scale strike of television and movie writers caused notable damage to the American market. Looking back, it seems obvious that an agreement made five months earlier would have been just as beneficial to both parties. Half a billion dollars were lost in revenues and wages and network ratings dropped by an average of nine percent, costing both sides vast amounts more than the sum they were fighting over. A similar dilemma seems to be about to repeat itself now, against the odds of history, and with the awareness that, paradoxically, even unions raise the workers’ wages by more than strikes do these days. It is therefore justified to ask, why workers still engage in strikes. Most frequently, strikes occur when neither side knows the true position of the other. One side is generally more knowledgeable about the true economic situation in question than the other, a situation termed “asymmetric information” by economists. Therefore, one way to determine whether the opposing side is bluffing or being sincere is to engage in a strike. If the opponent concedes quickly, it was a bluff. If the strike is long-lasting, the opponent was being serious to begin with and stubbornly remains so. Unfortunately for both sides, however, the longer a strike lasts, the less likely it is to produce a big victory for either side. This is rather ironic, considering that both parties tend to confidently overestimate their chances of victory. They do this, because strikes, even though initiated by economic grievances, essentially revolve around fairness and justice. It is because both sides insist that their cause is just, that they are willing to pay the price for its enforcement. In the case of the television and movie writers, the writers were willing to sacrifice their pay checks, because they believed to deserve a cut of their work’s revenue, and produces were accepting losses in business, because they believed that the television shows and the movies were their property. When involved in a strike, however, as it has become fairly evident in the past, both parties will receive only financial penalties for their conviction and for their confidence in justice.
Summary of Troubled Waters over Oil, by James Surowiecki
The year 2006 witnessed a radical decline in oil prices. After political confrontations between Iran and the United States, the prices increased again, and it is highly probable, that their relationship directly influenced the price of oil. It could thus be said that Iran might have economic incentives to pursue mercurial relations with the United States. This is because as soon as conflict possible, oil importers, in fear of a potential decrease in oil supply in the near future are more willing to pay higher prices for oil today, to be sure to receive it before the tap closes. This forecasting of supply and demand is referred to as “risk premium”, and because of risk premium strategies, statements by the U.S. suggesting armed conflict immediately result in higher oil prices, ironically strengthening the Iranian regime. Iran’s economic incentive to confront the United States, however, is deeply rooted in desperation. Lacking investments in its oil infrastructure might result in its inability to export oil at all in near future and financial commitments, such as subsidies on bread, gas, gasoline, and heating fuel or the “keeping-alive” of money-losing businesses for example. In order to avoid economic collapse, the Iranian regime needs to keep the oil prices high. Therefore, if the White House wishes to weaken Iran, they need only to stop their threatening rhetoric.
The subprime mortgage crisis, which is troubling the American if not the global economy at the moment, is not unlike the situation facing the American financial system in late October of 1907. Today, like then, the government became involved. Many subprime mortgages sold today were coupled with low interest rates, which rose alarmingly fast, for many borrowers. In 2008, these rates are planned to be reset. This means, however, that the payments of a large percentage of borrowers will actually increase and that increases the likelihood of mounting numbers of foreclosures. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson now proposes to postpone the interest rate resets of 2008 by five years. It is a solution that lenders could actually have come up with themselves. Government involvement was necessary because at this point, lenders no longer possess the capability to evaluate each case individually to determine whether a loan renegotiation or a foreclosure would be advisable. The government simplifies the process of renegotiations and simplifies the defining of “creditworthiness”. Strangely, it also allows for banks to cooperate on the setting of new loan prices and reduces the risk that investors and mortgage owners opt for suing. However, the Paulson’s Plan will only be beneficial to a limited number of borrowers. To be precise, it will only help those people, who cannot afford the rising interest rates, excluding those that can and those that could not pay the rates to begin with. It does not change the fact that too many borrowers cannot repay their debts and its effects are restricted, because interest-rate-resets are only a small portion of the mortgage market and the credit market crisis is no longer limited to subprime loans. It is therefore not certain, whether government involvement will save the economy this time, the way it did in 1907.
Summary of Our Precious Fossil Fluids, by James Surowiecki
The Bush Administration has, over the past few years, effectively promoted methods of oil production that would make the United Stated independent of expensive oil imports. The administration seems to believe that a self-sufficient economy would allow it to avoid dependence on foreigners, which, in the words of Vice-President Cheney, “do not wish [them] well”. However, such an economy is “neither attainable nor desirable,” because it is globalized trade that lets each nation specialize in what is does best and leave the rest to others. The real problem that the United States faces is the dominating control of cartels over the oil price. OPEC is said to be taking the lead on the matter of oil prices, and multinational corporations such as Exxon Mobil and Texaco, will follow its lead, regardless of the interests of the United States. Therefore, the Bush Administration should take globalization seriously and abandon the idea of a secluded oil market. In the words of Surowiecki, they ought to “go after OPEC”, just like the Justice Department went after international cartels in vitamins, lysine, and graphite electrodes in the 1990s. Foreign policy concerns could resolved, using the World Trade Organization, of which six OPEC member states are members, and which Saudi Arabia also wishes to join. In any case, the United States is the only player with sufficient power to take action against the “oil price conspiracy”.
Summary of All the Oil in China, by James Surowiecki
In 2005, a bid for the American oil company Unocal by the Chinese "cnooc" aroused a heated debate about American national security in relation to the free market. However, cooperation, or even competition with the Chinese could potentially be profitable for the United States. The bid by "cnooc", which is 70% government, owned was seen as a primary example of Chinese market expansion and many Americans feared that the Chinese would intend to buy up all oil and natural-gas reserves, which were already at a high price, and which were said to slowly become scarce. This stance was absurd, because the world market operated, even then, in the interests of the highest bidder, meaning that oil would be available even to countries with limited access to means of oil production such as the United States. Opening American markets to Chinese investments without government interference would, however, provide ideal conditions for free asset flow, which would strengthen the American economy. Americans could profit from cheap Chinese goods and harmonic relationships with China would ensure their continued interest in American government bonds, a major source of income for the American government. America and China are thus dependent on each other if they want to ensure the continued well-being of their economies and it would be unwise of the American government to interfere with the deal surrounding Unocal, because good relationships with its competitor would be strained otherwise.
Summary of A Buyer’s Christmas, by James Surowiecki
Today’s global oil supply can be split into two general categories: Conventional reserves and unconventional reserves. The output of conventional reserves such as crude oil is expected to decline over the next few decades, the result being blackouts, food shortages, and general economic collapse. The yields of unconventional reserves, however, are expected to double by 2010 and could potentially even keep conventional oil flowing longer. Unfortunately, however, the mining and refining processes of such resources are marked by a high demand in energy and a high output of pollution. One of the major unconventional oil sources is tar sand, found mostly in Canada, now already the number one source of American oil imports and possessor of the world’s second-largest oil reserves. It is composed of quartzite, clay, water, and tar, a mixture of bitumen (crude hydrocarbons). The process of excavating the tar, from which only ten percent, the bitumen, is eventually of value, is a long and complicated one and is, up until today, still being developed and perfected. The first step, called Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD), involves two horizontal wells, one above the other, which are inserted into the excavation site. The top one heats its surroundings with high-pressure steam, causing bitumen to flow to the bottom well. In a hot-water tank, the bitumen is then separated from the rest of the tar and from there it is then led to the “upgrader”. This first stage of the procedure alone requires 1600 mega joules of energy, about the value of one quarter of a barrel of oil. In the “upgrader”, the hydrocarbons, often twenty or more atoms in length then undergo the process of catalytic cracking, breaking down the molecules into a state in which they can be transported to the refineries, where they are mostly manufactured into transportation fuel. Overall the complete process requires more energy than that of procuring conventional oil. This is because it involves the transformation of a solid raw material to a liquid fuel, whereas conventional liquid oil is gained from liquid crude oil. Other drawbacks also include more severe landscape destruction, seeing as pipelines, drill pads, and roads are necessary for the extraction of tar from the ground. There is also a greater risk of leaks and spills of dangerous toxins, which would lead to the contamination of the surrounding natural habitats. Air pollution as a result of the burning of unconventional crude is another major issue and it has become evident that its greenhouse gas emissions are greater than those of conventional crude. Overall, even though unconventional reserves are less exploited today than are those of conventional crude, the methods of oil extraction are more demanding, more energy-consuming, and more environmentally damaging and therefore do not render a long-term solution to the coming oil crisis.
Summary of Sovereign Wealth World, By James Surowiecki
The term “sovereign wealth funds” generally refers to investment funds that are controlled by non-Western governments. Due to the rise in oil prices and the increased spending on Asian consumer goods, these funds have steadily gained prominence in the international market ever since the seventies. Today, they possess enough buying power to influence the market prices in Western nations and to gain assets there as well. Politicians representing Western countries are growing increasingly concerned with this pattern. Wide ranges of laws and regulations have been proposed to restrict the flow of capital in this respect and even most free-marketers oppose the takeover of Western companies by “foreign” governments. They fear the potential purchase of enterprises, responsible for a nation’s security or involved in the advanced technologies business and they are disturbed by the idea that the involvement of “foreign” nations might render the stock market less efficient through the protection of their national interests. The fact seems to be disregarded that such governments only seek to be involved in foreign markets because they promise themselves higher investment returns. Global economy is likely to remain largely unaffected by foreign take-overs, firstly because they only pose a threat to other shareholders and secondly, because non-western governments are well aware of the tensions that resulted from their foreign investments and are unlikely to pursue aggressive behaviour. On top of this, global economy is already “impure”, seeing as even in the West, many governments own stakes in major corporations. It is evident, that government involvement in the international market is not as dangerous as many may think. However, if certain nations happen to wish to dim its effects on their national economies, they should examine and possibly alter their own consumer patterns.
Summary of Performance-Pay Perplexes, by James Surowiecki
The mayhem that the subprime-mortgage market recently caused at Wall Street can be traced back to two major obvious blunders in the stock market. Firstly, the taking of foolish and unnecessary risks and secondly, the undertaking of such risks with borrowed money. It is less commonly known that the incentives for these actions lie within the prospect of large investment returns, which are also sources of income for two major categories of businessmen: hedge fund managers and CEOs. Hedge funds are private investment partnerships, opened to a limited number of investors on the basis o f a large initial minimum investment, promising their clients to generate high returns. Hedge fund managers are paid in such a manner that they only earn money if the investors receive returns for their investments. They are simply rewarded a portion of the winnings. In addition, at the end of each year, they receive performance bonuses. If the fund loses money, these performance fees are cancelled until the investors “get back to even”, but the hedge fund managers themselves are not compelled to feed their money into the fund. This allows the managers to “walk away” with their earnings at any time, even if they performed poorly. This often happens out of necessity, for example if all assets are erased, or merely if the fund does not generate enough of a performance fee. Hedge fund managers are thus greatly tempted to take large risks, which seem to promise great rewards without serious drawbacks for themselves. CEOs, the chief executive officers of corporations, are tempted by similar market conditions through the acquisition of stock options of other companies. These give them the right to purchase other company shares at a certain price within a certain time frame and are initially meant to give them incentives for improving the company’s performance. If the value of the stock exceeds that of what the option promises during the given time, the owner of the option can profit greatly. If it is below, the option becomes valueless at the expiration date. Because CEOs sit on entire piles of options, however, the differences in the stock values matter much less to them than to ordinary shareholders. CEOs, therefore, just like hedge fund managers, are inclined to entertain projects that promise greater returns at a greater risk. Unfortunately for the entire economy, however, the taking of such irresponsible risks, by both CEOs and hedge fund managers, with funds that were not theirs and with the financial immunity against the loss of these funds, has caused financial ruin among many investors, stockholders, and other proprietors.
Summary of The Oil Weapon, by James Surowiecki
In 1973, the OPEC oil embargo managed to throw the United States into a dire period of recession as an act of revenge for the American support of the Israelis during the conflict with Egypt. Up until this day, American foreign policy is still driven by the fear of the reoccurrence of such an incident and this has led American policy makers to allege more importance to the power of oil than it deserves. It seems to have gone unnoticed, that even though threats of oil scarcity have been plentiful, so has the amount of oil being produced in the region of the Persian Gulf. Ever since the Iranian Revolution, Arab nations have increased the rate of oil production, the Iraq under Saddam Hussein even to the extent that the United Nations was forced to limit his exports. This makes oil producing nations in the Middle East look more desperate than they try to look. What is evident, however, is that today, Western economies are stronger than they were in 1973 and that OPEC nations control a much smaller portion of the world’s oil market now. The United States is a lot less dependent on OPEC nations today, mostly because it relies on a variety of other suppliers, among them Mexico and Canada, and because, on average, it now uses less oil per dollar of G.D.P.
If an OPEC nation were to enforce another embargo, it would hurt itself more than it would hurt the Americans, because it would sell less without the United States receiving less oil. It is therefore unnecessary to be afraid of the “oil weapon” that many nations in the Middle East wield.
Summary of Global Warning, by Elisabeth Kolbert
Despite the fact that the consequences of global climate destabilization are becoming ever more evident, the government of the United States is unwilling to introduce the necessary countermeasures. The retreat of arctic sea ice causes a significant rise in sea level around the globe, in some cases, threatening to submerge entire populated islands. The thawing of permafrost, the acidification of the oceans, and the acceleration of ice streams, in addition to an increase in frequency and intensity of hurricanes, are also among the most dramatic consequences of global climate destabilization. However, the United States, one of the greatest emitters of greenhouse gases, which are known to be directly linked to global climate destabilization, are unwilling to improve their emissions profile. The Bush Administration does not perceive “global warming” as a pressing problem, and opposes any tax regulations or monetary caps to reduce their emissions, relying on a “voluntary approach” toward environmental friendliness. Given this stance, it is natural that the United States are not a party to the Kyoto Protocol and were thus also excluded from the Montreal Negotiations of 2005. However, the United States was still able to exercise defining influence over the decisions made at the conference. It is unlikely that the current government will support any agreements to follow the Kyoto protocol after its expiration in 2012, making it nearly impossible for the rest of the world to come to a decisive agreement on the issue and making it nearly certain, global climate destabilization will be allowed to worsen over the next decades.
Summary of Fuel for Thought, by James Surowiecki
It is commonly known that the automobile industry vehemently opposes new environmental or safety regulations. It did the same during the debate concerning the raise of fuel-efficiency standards, which occupied the American Congress for the first time in twenty years this July. According to the industry, such measure would be “technologically unfeasible and economically suicidal”. This is because market research conducted by automobile companies clearly proves that powerful but fuel-inefficient cars are most popular among Americans. Today, SUV’s and pickup trucks account for more than fifty percent of the car sales on the American market. The irony in respect to this phenomenon is the approval of the great majority of the American population of “dramatic increases in fuel-economy standards”. This is largely because most buyers prefer cars that guarantee more safety in a crash and which also act as a status symbol. The market creates no incentives to push people in a responsible direction, because it lives off individual purchase decisions, reflected by market research. Consumers on the other hand, indicate by their support of the fuel-efficiency standard bill, that they are not content with the collective purchasing decisions of the nation and require standards for everybody and effectively displaying their disapproval of the phenomenon that is aptly named the “Tragedy of the Commons”, which confronts all buyers with the results of individual consumer patterns in this case.
Summary of Striking Out, by James Surowiecki
During the spring of 1988 the twenty-two-week large-scale strike of television and movie writers caused notable damage to the American market. Looking back, it seems obvious that an agreement made five months earlier would have been just as beneficial to both parties. Half a billion dollars were lost in revenues and wages and network ratings dropped by an average of nine percent, costing both sides vast amounts more than the sum they were fighting over. A similar dilemma seems to be about to repeat itself now, against the odds of history, and with the awareness that, paradoxically, even unions raise the workers’ wages by more than strikes do these days. It is therefore justified to ask, why workers still engage in strikes. Most frequently, strikes occur when neither side knows the true position of the other. One side is generally more knowledgeable about the true economic situation in question than the other, a situation termed “asymmetric information” by economists. Therefore, one way to determine whether the opposing side is bluffing or being sincere is to engage in a strike. If the opponent concedes quickly, it was a bluff. If the strike is long-lasting, the opponent was being serious to begin with and stubbornly remains so. Unfortunately for both sides, however, the longer a strike lasts, the less likely it is to produce a big victory for either side. This is rather ironic, considering that both parties tend to confidently overestimate their chances of victory. They do this, because strikes, even though initiated by economic grievances, essentially revolve around fairness and justice. It is because both sides insist that their cause is just, that they are willing to pay the price for its enforcement. In the case of the television and movie writers, the writers were willing to sacrifice their pay checks, because they believed to deserve a cut of their work’s revenue, and produces were accepting losses in business, because they believed that the television shows and the movies were their property. When involved in a strike, however, as it has become fairly evident in the past, both parties will receive only financial penalties for their conviction and for their confidence in justice.
Summary of Troubled Waters over Oil, by James Surowiecki
The year 2006 witnessed a radical decline in oil prices. After political confrontations between Iran and the United States, the prices increased again, and it is highly probable, that their relationship directly influenced the price of oil. It could thus be said that Iran might have economic incentives to pursue mercurial relations with the United States. This is because as soon as conflict possible, oil importers, in fear of a potential decrease in oil supply in the near future are more willing to pay higher prices for oil today, to be sure to receive it before the tap closes. This forecasting of supply and demand is referred to as “risk premium”, and because of risk premium strategies, statements by the U.S. suggesting armed conflict immediately result in higher oil prices, ironically strengthening the Iranian regime. Iran’s economic incentive to confront the United States, however, is deeply rooted in desperation. Lacking investments in its oil infrastructure might result in its inability to export oil at all in near future and financial commitments, such as subsidies on bread, gas, gasoline, and heating fuel or the “keeping-alive” of money-losing businesses for example. In order to avoid economic collapse, the Iranian regime needs to keep the oil prices high. Therefore, if the White House wishes to weaken Iran, they need only to stop their threatening rhetoric.
Summary of Oil Change, by James Surowiecki
Rising oil prices after the Arab oil embargo, in 1973, the Iranian revolution of 1979, the Iran-Iraq war of 1980, and Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 have all caused great uncertainty, followed by a decrease in the number of purchases or investments, and slowing the economy overall. It is, however wrong to assume that oil prices have a great influence on the economy in general. The above incidents do not mirror a continuous pattern. Oil prices today are even higher then they were in those times, even in the absence of a major crisis, which was the crucial factor, causing the above incidents. High oil prices generally have small impacts. There might be slight tax increases or minor occasions of unemployment in oil-dependent industries; however contradictory evidence suggests that high oil prices are no cause for panic. Between 1999 and 2000, healthy economic growth was not disturbed by increasing oil prices. A significant decline in oil prices, on the other hand, has never spurred great economic boom and recessions have not always been triggers by the oil industry. It can be said quite safely, that patterns in history are not always applicable to the present, especially now that America has embarked on “more efficient” energy use and that declines in manufacturing and improvements in money policies have allowed it to become more resistant to oil price fluctuations. On top of that, the increase in oil prices we witness today is mainly due to increasing demand, especially by India and China, and not due to its decreasing supply because of war or revolution.
Summary of Paulson’s Plan by James Surowiecki
Rising oil prices after the Arab oil embargo, in 1973, the Iranian revolution of 1979, the Iran-Iraq war of 1980, and Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 have all caused great uncertainty, followed by a decrease in the number of purchases or investments, and slowing the economy overall. It is, however wrong to assume that oil prices have a great influence on the economy in general. The above incidents do not mirror a continuous pattern. Oil prices today are even higher then they were in those times, even in the absence of a major crisis, which was the crucial factor, causing the above incidents. High oil prices generally have small impacts. There might be slight tax increases or minor occasions of unemployment in oil-dependent industries; however contradictory evidence suggests that high oil prices are no cause for panic. Between 1999 and 2000, healthy economic growth was not disturbed by increasing oil prices. A significant decline in oil prices, on the other hand, has never spurred great economic boom and recessions have not always been triggers by the oil industry. It can be said quite safely, that patterns in history are not always applicable to the present, especially now that America has embarked on “more efficient” energy use and that declines in manufacturing and improvements in money policies have allowed it to become more resistant to oil price fluctuations. On top of that, the increase in oil prices we witness today is mainly due to increasing demand, especially by India and China, and not due to its decreasing supply because of war or revolution.
Summary of Paulson’s Plan by James Surowiecki
The subprime mortgage crisis, which is troubling the American if not the global economy at the moment, is not unlike the situation facing the American financial system in late October of 1907. Today, like then, the government became involved. Many subprime mortgages sold today were coupled with low interest rates, which rose alarmingly fast, for many borrowers. In 2008, these rates are planned to be reset. This means, however, that the payments of a large percentage of borrowers will actually increase and that increases the likelihood of mounting numbers of foreclosures. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson now proposes to postpone the interest rate resets of 2008 by five years. It is a solution that lenders could actually have come up with themselves. Government involvement was necessary because at this point, lenders no longer possess the capability to evaluate each case individually to determine whether a loan renegotiation or a foreclosure would be advisable. The government simplifies the process of renegotiations and simplifies the defining of “creditworthiness”. Strangely, it also allows for banks to cooperate on the setting of new loan prices and reduces the risk that investors and mortgage owners opt for suing. However, the Paulson’s Plan will only be beneficial to a limited number of borrowers. To be precise, it will only help those people, who cannot afford the rising interest rates, excluding those that can and those that could not pay the rates to begin with. It does not change the fact that too many borrowers cannot repay their debts and its effects are restricted, because interest-rate-resets are only a small portion of the mortgage market and the credit market crisis is no longer limited to subprime loans. It is therefore not certain, whether government involvement will save the economy this time, the way it did in 1907.
Summary of Our Precious Fossil Fluids, by James Surowiecki
The Bush Administration has, over the past few years, effectively promoted methods of oil production that would make the United Stated independent of expensive oil imports. The administration seems to believe that a self-sufficient economy would allow it to avoid dependence on foreigners, which, in the words of Vice-President Cheney, “do not wish [them] well”. However, such an economy is “neither attainable nor desirable,” because it is globalized trade that lets each nation specialize in what is does best and leave the rest to others. The real problem that the United States faces is the dominating control of cartels over the oil price. OPEC is said to be taking the lead on the matter of oil prices, and multinational corporations such as Exxon Mobil and Texaco, will follow its lead, regardless of the interests of the United States. Therefore, the Bush Administration should take globalization seriously and abandon the idea of a secluded oil market. In the words of Surowiecki, they ought to “go after OPEC”, just like the Justice Department went after international cartels in vitamins, lysine, and graphite electrodes in the 1990s. Foreign policy concerns could resolved, using the World Trade Organization, of which six OPEC member states are members, and which Saudi Arabia also wishes to join. In any case, the United States is the only player with sufficient power to take action against the “oil price conspiracy”.
Summary of All the Oil in China, by James Surowiecki
In 2005, a bid for the American oil company Unocal by the Chinese "cnooc" aroused a heated debate about American national security in relation to the free market. However, cooperation, or even competition with the Chinese could potentially be profitable for the United States. The bid by "cnooc", which is 70% government, owned was seen as a primary example of Chinese market expansion and many Americans feared that the Chinese would intend to buy up all oil and natural-gas reserves, which were already at a high price, and which were said to slowly become scarce. This stance was absurd, because the world market operated, even then, in the interests of the highest bidder, meaning that oil would be available even to countries with limited access to means of oil production such as the United States. Opening American markets to Chinese investments without government interference would, however, provide ideal conditions for free asset flow, which would strengthen the American economy. Americans could profit from cheap Chinese goods and harmonic relationships with China would ensure their continued interest in American government bonds, a major source of income for the American government. America and China are thus dependent on each other if they want to ensure the continued well-being of their economies and it would be unwise of the American government to interfere with the deal surrounding Unocal, because good relationships with its competitor would be strained otherwise.
Summary of A Buyer’s Christmas, by James Surowiecki
In the United States, the world’s greatest consumer, the Christmas shopping season represents 40% of the annual revenue for retail stores and roughly 75% of their annual profit. However, retailers find that consumer spending habits have shifted considerably over the last couple of years. This, coupled with the anxiety of a slowing economy has caused a steady erosion of the power of retailers. In the past, successful selling strategies have been extensively focused on control over the context in which consumers shop. Retailers have exercised a sense of pressure on shoppers and have made their products appear like bargains. The profusion of products has also lead to more strategic consumer choices in favour of the sellers. However, such strategies were quickly imitated by competitors, which presented a major problem to each retailer. The internet, however, has proven to pose an even greater threat. This is not because of inline shopping, which today still only accounts for about three percent of the total retail sales in the U.S. It is that the internet has allowed shoppers to make more informed purchases. They are a lot more knowledgeable about prices, quality, and value of products and are given the opportunity to compare products of different retailers. This makes it more difficult for sellers to shape consumer perception of quality and value. Shoppers respond less to retailers’ selling tactics and this has lead to a shift of power from the sellers to the buyers. Today, if retailers want to make a profit, they need to offer good value for the money.
Summary of Changing Lanes, by Elizabeth Kolbert
Senator John McCain used to be primarily concerned with telling the people the truth. He is known to have announced, “I've been telling people the truth, whether I thought that's what they wanted or not," on numerous occasions. Recently, however, he seems to have changed course, most probably when he discovered that presidential campaigns do not necessarily reward integrity. Settling on a new approach, which seems to favor telling people what they want to hear, rather than what they have to hear, McCain tackled the issue upmost on the minds of the American voters: Oil prices. The majority of the American people believe that drilling for more oil in the United States would solve the issue of high prices. In fact, almost 73% share this opinion and some even support it, despite the subsequent negative side effects for the environment. McCain brilliantly rides on this wave of concern in his television advertisement "Pump", in which he blames the Democratic refusal to drill for more oil onshore for the oil prices. That McCain has opted for a strategy less oriented by the truth is supported by the fact that U.S. oil could in fact only support the world's thirst for oil for roughly seven months. On top of this, oil prices are dependent on the global markets, not simply by the American ones. The government cannot lower oil prices and should not try to either. It should primarily advocate more ethical consumption patterns and show concern for the environment to decrease America's dependence on oil.
Summary of Always with Us, by John Cassidy
After his insightful recommendations concerning the Bolivian hyperinflation of 1985, few economic minds of the day could afford to ignore Jeffrey Sachs. His insights brought an immediate end to the three-year crisis and from then on, Sachs became one of the most prominent economic advisors on the planet. In his book, The Endo of Poverty, he addresses several of his key ideas regarding some of his most prized projects. He was a key contributor to the Earth Institute at Columbia, for example, and a great addition to the United Nations Millennium Project. This project had the ambitious aim of reducing world poverty by half, combating starvation, malnutrition, and disease and attempting to save millions of children, in danger of dying before reaching adulthood. Sachs’ work also encompassed other dimensions, however. He is probably best known for the concept of "shock therapy", the practice, which, he argued, would revive former communist economies and convert them to efficient capitalist economies. Freeing the new Polish and Russian markets from government control, however, produced a little much "shock" and provided relatively little "therapy". Prices soared, savings were lost, and unemployment rose, especially in the heavy industry. "Shock therapy" was a questionable practice at the time. Today, however, Sachs' supporters can rightfully claim that the nations that experienced the therapy were among the most successful post-communist nations.
Summary of Bad Environments, by Elizabeth Kolbert
The Bush Administration is arguably one of the most environmentally unfriendly ever to be witnessed by the American people. It has done almost everything in its power to loosen environmental agreements and to alter them in favor of economic interests. Only recently, it engineered the permission to dispose of mine waste in any given location in cooperation with the National Mining Association. Reclassified as mere "fill", this waste poses a great setback to the Clean Water act of 1972. Alternatively, the restriction of the Environmental Protection Agency from performing the duties, for which it was created, further suggests that the administration is in favor of economic progress over environmental protection. During his years in office, George Bush has scuttled new standards for arsenic drinking water, pulled out of the Kyoto Protocol, and expedited the permit-granting process for power companies. On top of this, he allowed logging companies to construct roads in national forests and Alaska to be explored and exploited more than ever before. He has allowed outdated power plants to pursue power generation. He has been successful in these undertakings, which also include the blocking of the nomination of the American Robert Watson as chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, because he has in many ways, remained true to American values. As long as the American people care little about the environment, Bush could pursue his methods largely unopposed.
Summary of Hot Topic, by Elizabeth Kolbert
Almost since its initial foundation in 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has faced resistance from the U.S. Government. Its main task, upon was, and still is, to submit updated reports on the status of the world climate approximately every four to five years. Thousands of scientists participate in the peer-reviewing process that eventually leads to the publication of the Assessment Reports, for which the IPCC is so well known. What hinders this process, however, is the required approval of the governments of the member states to the IPCC. As such, the United States has done much in the past, to water down the contents of the IPCC reports. Recently, however, this trend seems to have begun to reverse. The submission of a bill to cut U.S. Emissions by 80% by 2025, submitted by Senator Bernie Sanders is just one example. A democratic majority in the House has allowed the succession of Joe Barton of Texas as Chair of the Energy and Commerce Committee, by John Dingell, who has promised to hold more hearings on climate change. A "green wave" seems also to have overcome the U.S. Climate Action Partnership, whose members include Duke Energy, Alcoa, DuPont, and G.E. The partnership is known to have promoted emissions reductions of up to 60% by mid-century, counter to the general attitude in the energy sector. These changes in sentiments may even have come from the final realization that current trends in energy consumption and environmental pollution can no longer be maintained.
Summary of Getting Warmer, by Elizabeth Kolbert
The policies of the United States, regarding environmental protection, especially climate change, are, although vigorously defended by the current Administration, difficult to ethically and scientifically justify. One attempt has been made by novelist Michael Crichton in his fictitious account of a climate change Armageddon, engineered by environmentalists. Strangely, Crichton is respected by the administration for his point of view. This is especially evident in its comportment in regard to its approach to the Kyoto Protocol of 1997. Said protocol required at least 55 nations to approve of it, including at least 55% of the industrialized world's greatest carbon dioxide emitters. The proposals of the protocol include numerical targets for emissions reductions, global markets for emissions credits, and incentives for investing in clean-energy technology in the developing world. Most importantly, however, the signatory countries to the Kyoto Protocol recognize the existence of the problem of global climate destabilization. The Bush Administration and Michael Crichton share a common opinion in this respect. They do not believe in the science that proves the existence of such a problem. The U.S. Senate already made it known during the term of the Clinton Administration, that it would oppose Kyoto, but Bush was the one to eventually withdraw the United States from its commitments. Ever since the Bush Administration took office, climate change policy has been backward and ineffective. This can hardly be justified in light of scientific evidence that proves the magnitude of the threat posed by climate change.
Summary of Storm Warnings, by Elizabeth Kolbert
When the United States withdrew from the Kyoto negotiations, it did so mainly based on two faulty premises. Firstly, it argued that the science behind the protocol was insufficient to force it to undertake costly emissions reductions, and secondly, that the treaty "did not suit American needs", as President Bush once stated during an interview. Hurricane Katrina, however, proved this assumption wrong as well. The destruction inflicted by the hurricane was so great that entire towns and cities were completely devastated. Anybody who was bold enough to criticize the Administration for its policies (dis)regarding climate change, such as German environmental minister Jürgen Trittin, was immediately labeled insensitive, even though, in order to prevent such catastrophes from occurring in future, this would be desperately needed. In fact, climate change, as some may argue, cannot be made completely responsible for Hurricane Katrina. It can, however, be made responsible for the overall statistical pattern, regarding the connection between the consumption of fossil fuels, rising carbon dioxide levels, and the increasing intensity of hurricanes. These facts are of great concern to the world's major insurance companies. Unlike the Bush Administration, they are greatly concerned by the correlation between rising sea temperatures, which encourage the formation of hurricanes in the Tropics, and the corresponding losses in insurance monies. It is estimated that insurance losses from extreme storms could rise to roughly 150 billion dollars in the coming decades and this does not even account for the growing number of people and their increasing wealth, in storm-prone areas. Weather-related insurance losses are already known to have increased in the United States in the past, so it cannot possibly e that the Kyoto protocol and the science behind it are of no interest to the U.S. government.
Summary of High Costs, by John Cassidy
In the United States of America, global climate destabilization remains an issue of low priority for most citizens, thanks to, among other factors, the efforts of the Bush Administration and its corporate allies, who have done much in the past, to downplay scientific evidence, proving the not only the existence, but also the considerable scale of the threat posed by climate change. Thankfully, the British government, in contrast to that of the USA, has recognized the threat and has begun to give it more prominence in its policies. While the Bush Administration claims that mitigation efforts would do excessive damage to the economy, Sir Nicholas Stern, Head of the British Government Economic Service, has laid out extensive proof on the contrary in a report published in 2006. Stern, whose credentials range from an academic background at Cambridge, Oxford, and the London School of Economics, to practical experience at the European Bank for reconstruction and Development and at the World Bank, has made a good case for climate change science, when he evaluated the economic consequences of the scientific findings in his report. He argued that currently, the consumption of energy products does not reflect their cost, leading to externalities on a large scale. This not-paying-the-consequences-for-one's-actions results in global market failures, which can be in nobody's interest, not even in those of the Bush Administration and its allies. Stern proposes taxes, regulations, and compulsory voucher schemes to compensate for current externalities. Mitigation, he says, if tackled now, would cost the world roughly one percent of its annual global GDP, if greenhouse gas levels were to be stabilized by 2050. No action would result in costs between five to twenty percent of annual global GDP in the near future. Paradoxically, however, in order to reduce costs for the global economy, the world is in need of the cooperation of the U.S. government.
Summary of Ozone Man, by David Remnick
Today, there exists greater concern for global warming in America than could have been imagined by the international community, which explains the elevated interest for movies such as Ice Age: The Meltdown and Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth. The topics that these productions focus on have never seemed to be an issue for the Bush Administration, which has never shown great concern for environmental protection. Bush's victory over Al Gore in the 2000 elections has marked a decisive breach in the environmental policies of the United States and many voters still lament the flaws in the voting procedures of that year. Had Al Gore been made president, it is safe to say, the world would look quite different today. Instead, he has been reduced to the role of a Willy Loman character, trying to change public perception of this environmental catastrophe. Had he been made president, he would not be struggling in the way that he is right now. The Kyoto Protocol would have been endorsed, the EPA would have been supported in its investigations, and fuel-efficiency standards would have been adjusted in the United States. However, Gore would also have made a number of different decisions apart from those regarding the environment. He would have acted differently, regarding domestic surveillance, torture, and welfare and federal deficit reform, and he would probably not have entered Iraq. It is safe to say that the next president of the United States would have an easier job, had Al Gore preceded him.
Summary of Changing Lanes, by Elizabeth Kolbert
Senator John McCain used to be primarily concerned with telling the people the truth. He is known to have announced, “I've been telling people the truth, whether I thought that's what they wanted or not," on numerous occasions. Recently, however, he seems to have changed course, most probably when he discovered that presidential campaigns do not necessarily reward integrity. Settling on a new approach, which seems to favor telling people what they want to hear, rather than what they have to hear, McCain tackled the issue upmost on the minds of the American voters: Oil prices. The majority of the American people believe that drilling for more oil in the United States would solve the issue of high prices. In fact, almost 73% share this opinion and some even support it, despite the subsequent negative side effects for the environment. McCain brilliantly rides on this wave of concern in his television advertisement "Pump", in which he blames the Democratic refusal to drill for more oil onshore for the oil prices. That McCain has opted for a strategy less oriented by the truth is supported by the fact that U.S. oil could in fact only support the world's thirst for oil for roughly seven months. On top of this, oil prices are dependent on the global markets, not simply by the American ones. The government cannot lower oil prices and should not try to either. It should primarily advocate more ethical consumption patterns and show concern for the environment to decrease America's dependence on oil.
Summary of Always with Us, by John Cassidy
After his insightful recommendations concerning the Bolivian hyperinflation of 1985, few economic minds of the day could afford to ignore Jeffrey Sachs. His insights brought an immediate end to the three-year crisis and from then on, Sachs became one of the most prominent economic advisors on the planet. In his book, The Endo of Poverty, he addresses several of his key ideas regarding some of his most prized projects. He was a key contributor to the Earth Institute at Columbia, for example, and a great addition to the United Nations Millennium Project. This project had the ambitious aim of reducing world poverty by half, combating starvation, malnutrition, and disease and attempting to save millions of children, in danger of dying before reaching adulthood. Sachs’ work also encompassed other dimensions, however. He is probably best known for the concept of "shock therapy", the practice, which, he argued, would revive former communist economies and convert them to efficient capitalist economies. Freeing the new Polish and Russian markets from government control, however, produced a little much "shock" and provided relatively little "therapy". Prices soared, savings were lost, and unemployment rose, especially in the heavy industry. "Shock therapy" was a questionable practice at the time. Today, however, Sachs' supporters can rightfully claim that the nations that experienced the therapy were among the most successful post-communist nations.
Summary of Bad Environments, by Elizabeth Kolbert
The Bush Administration is arguably one of the most environmentally unfriendly ever to be witnessed by the American people. It has done almost everything in its power to loosen environmental agreements and to alter them in favor of economic interests. Only recently, it engineered the permission to dispose of mine waste in any given location in cooperation with the National Mining Association. Reclassified as mere "fill", this waste poses a great setback to the Clean Water act of 1972. Alternatively, the restriction of the Environmental Protection Agency from performing the duties, for which it was created, further suggests that the administration is in favor of economic progress over environmental protection. During his years in office, George Bush has scuttled new standards for arsenic drinking water, pulled out of the Kyoto Protocol, and expedited the permit-granting process for power companies. On top of this, he allowed logging companies to construct roads in national forests and Alaska to be explored and exploited more than ever before. He has allowed outdated power plants to pursue power generation. He has been successful in these undertakings, which also include the blocking of the nomination of the American Robert Watson as chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, because he has in many ways, remained true to American values. As long as the American people care little about the environment, Bush could pursue his methods largely unopposed.
Summary of Hot Topic, by Elizabeth Kolbert
Almost since its initial foundation in 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has faced resistance from the U.S. Government. Its main task, upon was, and still is, to submit updated reports on the status of the world climate approximately every four to five years. Thousands of scientists participate in the peer-reviewing process that eventually leads to the publication of the Assessment Reports, for which the IPCC is so well known. What hinders this process, however, is the required approval of the governments of the member states to the IPCC. As such, the United States has done much in the past, to water down the contents of the IPCC reports. Recently, however, this trend seems to have begun to reverse. The submission of a bill to cut U.S. Emissions by 80% by 2025, submitted by Senator Bernie Sanders is just one example. A democratic majority in the House has allowed the succession of Joe Barton of Texas as Chair of the Energy and Commerce Committee, by John Dingell, who has promised to hold more hearings on climate change. A "green wave" seems also to have overcome the U.S. Climate Action Partnership, whose members include Duke Energy, Alcoa, DuPont, and G.E. The partnership is known to have promoted emissions reductions of up to 60% by mid-century, counter to the general attitude in the energy sector. These changes in sentiments may even have come from the final realization that current trends in energy consumption and environmental pollution can no longer be maintained.
Summary of Getting Warmer, by Elizabeth Kolbert
The policies of the United States, regarding environmental protection, especially climate change, are, although vigorously defended by the current Administration, difficult to ethically and scientifically justify. One attempt has been made by novelist Michael Crichton in his fictitious account of a climate change Armageddon, engineered by environmentalists. Strangely, Crichton is respected by the administration for his point of view. This is especially evident in its comportment in regard to its approach to the Kyoto Protocol of 1997. Said protocol required at least 55 nations to approve of it, including at least 55% of the industrialized world's greatest carbon dioxide emitters. The proposals of the protocol include numerical targets for emissions reductions, global markets for emissions credits, and incentives for investing in clean-energy technology in the developing world. Most importantly, however, the signatory countries to the Kyoto Protocol recognize the existence of the problem of global climate destabilization. The Bush Administration and Michael Crichton share a common opinion in this respect. They do not believe in the science that proves the existence of such a problem. The U.S. Senate already made it known during the term of the Clinton Administration, that it would oppose Kyoto, but Bush was the one to eventually withdraw the United States from its commitments. Ever since the Bush Administration took office, climate change policy has been backward and ineffective. This can hardly be justified in light of scientific evidence that proves the magnitude of the threat posed by climate change.
Summary of Storm Warnings, by Elizabeth Kolbert
When the United States withdrew from the Kyoto negotiations, it did so mainly based on two faulty premises. Firstly, it argued that the science behind the protocol was insufficient to force it to undertake costly emissions reductions, and secondly, that the treaty "did not suit American needs", as President Bush once stated during an interview. Hurricane Katrina, however, proved this assumption wrong as well. The destruction inflicted by the hurricane was so great that entire towns and cities were completely devastated. Anybody who was bold enough to criticize the Administration for its policies (dis)regarding climate change, such as German environmental minister Jürgen Trittin, was immediately labeled insensitive, even though, in order to prevent such catastrophes from occurring in future, this would be desperately needed. In fact, climate change, as some may argue, cannot be made completely responsible for Hurricane Katrina. It can, however, be made responsible for the overall statistical pattern, regarding the connection between the consumption of fossil fuels, rising carbon dioxide levels, and the increasing intensity of hurricanes. These facts are of great concern to the world's major insurance companies. Unlike the Bush Administration, they are greatly concerned by the correlation between rising sea temperatures, which encourage the formation of hurricanes in the Tropics, and the corresponding losses in insurance monies. It is estimated that insurance losses from extreme storms could rise to roughly 150 billion dollars in the coming decades and this does not even account for the growing number of people and their increasing wealth, in storm-prone areas. Weather-related insurance losses are already known to have increased in the United States in the past, so it cannot possibly e that the Kyoto protocol and the science behind it are of no interest to the U.S. government.
Summary of High Costs, by John Cassidy
In the United States of America, global climate destabilization remains an issue of low priority for most citizens, thanks to, among other factors, the efforts of the Bush Administration and its corporate allies, who have done much in the past, to downplay scientific evidence, proving the not only the existence, but also the considerable scale of the threat posed by climate change. Thankfully, the British government, in contrast to that of the USA, has recognized the threat and has begun to give it more prominence in its policies. While the Bush Administration claims that mitigation efforts would do excessive damage to the economy, Sir Nicholas Stern, Head of the British Government Economic Service, has laid out extensive proof on the contrary in a report published in 2006. Stern, whose credentials range from an academic background at Cambridge, Oxford, and the London School of Economics, to practical experience at the European Bank for reconstruction and Development and at the World Bank, has made a good case for climate change science, when he evaluated the economic consequences of the scientific findings in his report. He argued that currently, the consumption of energy products does not reflect their cost, leading to externalities on a large scale. This not-paying-the-consequences-for-one's-actions results in global market failures, which can be in nobody's interest, not even in those of the Bush Administration and its allies. Stern proposes taxes, regulations, and compulsory voucher schemes to compensate for current externalities. Mitigation, he says, if tackled now, would cost the world roughly one percent of its annual global GDP, if greenhouse gas levels were to be stabilized by 2050. No action would result in costs between five to twenty percent of annual global GDP in the near future. Paradoxically, however, in order to reduce costs for the global economy, the world is in need of the cooperation of the U.S. government.
Summary of Ozone Man, by David Remnick
Today, there exists greater concern for global warming in America than could have been imagined by the international community, which explains the elevated interest for movies such as Ice Age: The Meltdown and Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth. The topics that these productions focus on have never seemed to be an issue for the Bush Administration, which has never shown great concern for environmental protection. Bush's victory over Al Gore in the 2000 elections has marked a decisive breach in the environmental policies of the United States and many voters still lament the flaws in the voting procedures of that year. Had Al Gore been made president, it is safe to say, the world would look quite different today. Instead, he has been reduced to the role of a Willy Loman character, trying to change public perception of this environmental catastrophe. Had he been made president, he would not be struggling in the way that he is right now. The Kyoto Protocol would have been endorsed, the EPA would have been supported in its investigations, and fuel-efficiency standards would have been adjusted in the United States. However, Gore would also have made a number of different decisions apart from those regarding the environment. He would have acted differently, regarding domestic surveillance, torture, and welfare and federal deficit reform, and he would probably not have entered Iraq. It is safe to say that the next president of the United States would have an easier job, had Al Gore preceded him.
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